The review begins with the overall evolution of fertility in the OECD; enjoy!
You do not get a much better picture of the demographic transition in the developed world than this I imagine but as we shall see there are notable differences between countries and regions which of course make the macroeconomic analysis and conceptualization more difficult. Nobody of course knows how far fertility can and will drift down but there does seem to be some kind of stabilization at 1.6 children per woman aged 15-
Moving back to the TFR rates however there are as mentioned differences and they are very important to pay attention to. Let us first look at the Anglo-Saxon (English speaking) countries which are doing a good job keeping the OECD aggregate TFR level afloat.
Here of course the TFR rate in the
Moving on to southern
And while we are in Europe why don't we take a look at Eastern Europe. The picture is of course incomplete but given the general level of development and their place in the global value chain the general fertility levels in this region should be the cause of much worry amongst the policymakers. It is thus most worrying to see these countries move through the demographic transition at a pace which is clearly not in sync with the pace of economic development.
On the second last graph we have the Nordic countries where fertility levels are generally higher than in the rest of Europe and close to replacement leves albeit somewhat (1.7+) lower for all countries except Iceland. Perhaps most interestingly the evolution in fertility is considerably more volatile than in other OECD countries. Note for example
Lastly, I am featuring a graph of a comparison I have often made between the three oldest countries in the world (measured by median age),
Fertility levels can tell us a lot but by no means everything. Especially, the net migration rate is an important input to the full comprehension of the overall population dynamics in the individual countries. Moreover, the way fertility is treated above also does not take into account to cohort perspective. As such, it is important task to divide the fertility levels into more specific periods to really get a full picture. For example the periods 1970-80, 1980-1990, and 1990-2004 reveal notable differences in average fertility levels and as such y-o-y fluctuations in fertility rates are not very useful in themselves. I have begun the calculations on these periods in the .excel document linked to above. In the end however I hope that you have found this useful anyways and pleaes do feel free to use the data and graphs fore further study. More specifically I recommend you to download the .excel file and have a look at the data set. You never know when a paper comes along which demands the use of one of the fertility tables above. Of course you will also be able to customize the table design as you see fit from within the .excel file linked above.