Saturday, October 31, 2015
What do you think are some overlooked demographic issues?
I would like to assure everyone that I am working on a post in response to yesterday's news that China is shifting to a two-child policy. (Brief reaction: I do not think it will change much, given the consistently low level of fertility in East Asia and Chinese-majority societies. Demographic changes in China will come in other ways.)
In the meantime, I am curious to know what readers might think are demographic issues of note that are not being covered, here, in the larger blogosphere, and in the mass media and academic journals. What's being overlooked?
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6 comments:
I'm interested in the demographics of religious conversion. There was a recent census on ex-Muslim Christians in the Interdisciplinary Journal of Research on Religion on the topic by Johnstone and Miller. Interesting stuff and I would really like to hear some more on the intersection of religious conversion and demographics. I don't know of anyone who is working on this topic.
The effect of ethnic changes on the local, native population I think is more or less overlooked. I mean, I read demography papers only rarely, but I can't remember any paper about how cultures of ethnic Germans, English and French are changing as a reaction to new immigration.
Will China's policy change be retroactive? I'm curious to get good numbers on the "hidden" second child effect, which is really hard unless there is a way to legally recognize these children.
I think one of the least studied topics is nations that have successfully raised their fertility rates, mostly, we have seen nations which have failed, I think though, more attention should be paid to countries which have raised their fertility rates dramatically, such as Russia, whose TFR went from 1.31 in 2006 to 1.75 in 2014, a rise of 34% in 8 years the most rapid of any country in Europe in recent times I believe.
Through looking at countries like Russia, we can learn how countries can successfully raise their TFR.
I do not think that Russian gov-t raised TFR, but it has increased
How much internal migration is there in Russia? The national increase, while visible for most regions, shows much higher fertility rate for the caucuses and some Siberian regions. If there is internal migration, some of even the central Russian fertility rate increase could be coming from a different population replacement mechanism than actual changing of people's desired family size.
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