Tuesday, December 30, 2014

What demographics-related issues do you think are being underreported?

Any number of demographic issues around the world have been heavily reported on: population aging, fertility change, population shrinkage in some countries and continued growth in others, continued changes in family formation. Speaking as a news junkie, issues of demographic change have been raised in connection to many different countries, whether we're talking about depopulation (or not) in the former Soviet Union, economic problems in countries as diverse as Japan, Germany, and the United States, and issues of unauthorized migration across frontiers. Are there any issues that you think have been underreported? Are there any regions of the world where significant developments have been, you think, overlooked? Leave suggestions in the comments. Again, the readership of Demography Matters matters.


Abu Daoud said...

I have posted before asking for more on depopulation on the former USSR (thanks for remembering that). One topic that I rarely hear about though is this: given that much of Latin America is experiencing a rapid decline in TFR towards replacement (or even below), what will happen with migration to the USA? Will it slow down or reach a net of zero? Or will it keep on happening with actual depopulation of parts of Latin America?

I would also love some info on projections for Europe c. 2100. Pew did a study on Islam in Europe but it only went out to 2030. I wonder if they didn't include any further projections because it would be too...politically sensitive. I don't know.


Randy McDonald said...

Judging by central and eastern Europe, the only impact of sustained low fertility on migration from Latin America--assuming nothing else changes--is that eventually the cohorts of potential migrants will shrink. This will do nothing to undermine the propensity of potential migrants to emigrate.

Regarding Islam, I don't think that Pew was being politically sensitive at all. 2030 seems to have been as far as they were comfortable predicting for the wider world.

Anonymous said...

I'd love if you worked on two under-reported subjects :

- Israeli demographics
- the fertility rebound in a number of russian regions and ex-soviet republics

Jeff Rigsby said...

A post on Puerto Rico wouldn't come amiss. The island seems to have the same problems as peripheral Europe (uncompetitive, can't devalue, massive foreign-currency debt, common labor market with a prosperous core) and it's facing much faster depopulation than the most troubled eurozone countries: roughly 1 percent per year.

Steve Salmony said...

Please discuss an article on DTM.

Biodiversity - a Journal of Life on Earth

An expansion of the demographic transition model: the dynamic link between agricultural productivity and population

Russell Hopfenberg


The classic demographic transition model illustrates the pattern of birth and death rates over time, shifting from high and equivalent to low and equivalent, with population increasing sharply during this transition as a society industrialises. However, the model has a limited temporal frame and cultural scope. It also overlooks that human population trends follow agricultural productivity. Because food is an essential carrying capacity variable and a fundamental economic driver, as food availability is increased the population increases leading to severe biodiversity loss. The current analysis expands the classic model, taking into account all of human history, and highlighting the basic carrying capacity foundations of fertility changes. This comprehensive model shows birth and death rates in Stage A as low and equivalent before the advent of the agricultural revolution. Stage A is followed by Stages B and C, in which the increasing birth rate precedes the increasing death rate, causing a rise in population. The stages then progress as in the classic demographic transition model.

Thank you,

Steven Earl Salmony
AWAREness Campaign on The Human Population, est. 2001
Chapel Hill, NC