Tuesday, December 30, 2014

What demographics-related issues do you think are being underreported?

Any number of demographic issues around the world have been heavily reported on: population aging, fertility change, population shrinkage in some countries and continued growth in others, continued changes in family formation. Speaking as a news junkie, issues of demographic change have been raised in connection to many different countries, whether we're talking about depopulation (or not) in the former Soviet Union, economic problems in countries as diverse as Japan, Germany, and the United States, and issues of unauthorized migration across frontiers. Are there any issues that you think have been underreported? Are there any regions of the world where significant developments have been, you think, overlooked? Leave suggestions in the comments. Again, the readership of Demography Matters matters.

Sunday, December 28, 2014

Suggestions, feedback, comments? Leave them here.

Before I start posting tomorrow about China, I thought I'd create a space here at Demography Matters for commenters to leave suggestions and feedback. What our readers are interested in matters to us.

Tuesday, December 23, 2014

Notes on the demographic future of Cuba


In the past, Demography Matters has examined the demographic issues of Cuba at some length. In a August 2006, I noted that all of the predictions for Cuba expected rapid aging of the population, as a consequence of low fertility and sustained emigration, leading to substantial shrinkage of the country's workforce. In a July 2009 post, I noted that the Cuban population had already begun to shrink, and in a May 2010 post I argued that Cuba was missing too many opportunities for change, too many windows closing while it still had a relatively young population. The post-Communist example of Bulgaria was something I raised in 2006, with its spectre of incipient depopulation and the pre-existing example of massive Cuban emigration to the United States. Nothing that has happened since has convinced me this is not a plausible future for Cuba.

And now? Some of the announced changes by the United States, particularly the expanded volume of remittances that can be sent to Cuba by migrants and increased ease of movement and communication across the Florida Straits, might make provide greater incentives for migration. As a November 2014 Havana Times article noted, in the two decades after the Cold War a half-million Cubans emigrated to the United States. Why not more, if nothing else changes in Cuba?

I suspect that Cuba might not be coming to the last of its opportunities to get rich before it grows old. Will Cuba manage this transition in a new era of improved Cuban-American relations? One can only hope.

UPDATE: Marginal Revolution's Tyler Cowen argues that there are good reasons, including a vulnerable export sector, institutional weaknesses, and brain drain, to be skeptical of post-Communist Cuba's economic chances. (He also lists some reasons for hope, including high levels of human development, abundant natural resources, and a talented diaspora in the United States.)