tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-19949676.post7688163858330136807..comments2024-03-24T20:13:39.387+00:00Comments on demography.matters.blog: On Russian immigration to China and false common knowledge about demographicsUnknownnoreply@blogger.comBlogger42125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-19949676.post-45034993750859235202010-08-17T00:24:43.436+00:002010-08-17T00:24:43.436+00:00Pro-natalist policies can't really work. Howe...Pro-natalist policies can't really work. However, <br />1. A large rural farming population<br />2. No pension plan to speak of<br />3. Long, historical cultural norms that prize children (well, boys, anyway) because of the the 2 facts above<br /><br />mean that Chinese for the next 30 years will still reproduce at above replacement rate if the shackles come off. The problems will come in Dohsanhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/07884148005077602324noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-19949676.post-7753419164760579612010-01-20T17:12:52.990+00:002010-01-20T17:12:52.990+00:00Is there anyway of estimating the possible extent ...Is there anyway of estimating the possible extent of birth postponement in Russia?Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-19949676.post-57928460530877245402010-01-17T11:35:13.792+00:002010-01-17T11:35:13.792+00:00I am not very bearish on Ireland. I am watching co...I am not very bearish on Ireland. I am watching countries such as Greece, Spain, many countries in Eastern Europe. Italy is also very interesting. Japan is fascinating. There is a plenty of cool stuff around besides Ireland<br /><br />:D :DNobodyhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/09952955021226297401noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-19949676.post-56200958234862730122010-01-17T11:21:13.654+00:002010-01-17T11:21:13.654+00:00Plenty of regions went through a demographic colla...Plenty of regions went through a demographic collapse in the near past. You only have to look at the mountain regions of Europe and calling Ireland a demographic struggling country is plain weird.<br /><br />PS. The Irish in the UK did produce a serious messAnonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-19949676.post-68969993275832863742010-01-15T09:31:42.361+00:002010-01-15T09:31:42.361+00:00Or if there is a serious mess because of immigrati...Or if there is a serious mess because of immigration in some West European country.Nobodyhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/09952955021226297401noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-19949676.post-28992427468378040222010-01-15T09:30:27.598+00:002010-01-15T09:30:27.598+00:00Anon
We still don't have a country that crash...Anon<br /><br />We still don't have a country that crashed because of its demography though during this crisis demographically struggling countries seem to have been the first to fall to pieces. I bet that during the next decade we will get something like this in Eastern Europe or elsewhere. Then the sense of urgency will growNobodyhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/09952955021226297401noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-19949676.post-32580716914062116902010-01-15T01:45:42.663+00:002010-01-15T01:45:42.663+00:00I used Singapore explicit because Singapore is tha...I used Singapore explicit because Singapore is that kind of country. IIRC they tried it in the 90's with some early success but it failed anyway.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-19949676.post-20699824632223619752010-01-12T21:33:33.534+00:002010-01-12T21:33:33.534+00:00And again, this is a new situation and it's ab...And again, this is a new situation and it's about very thin margins. Basically even the TFR is 1.8-1.9 may be enough, people live longer these days, they stay active for longer. So it's basically just about a few decimal points and a few decimal points is a matter of political will and nothing more.Nobodyhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/09952955021226297401noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-19949676.post-38088794838669171642010-01-12T21:27:50.020+00:002010-01-12T21:27:50.020+00:00Randy said...
Nobody:
"Why it's not pro ...<em>Randy said...<br />Nobody:<br /><br />"Why it's not pro natalist? Because it does not seek to escalate fertility, but only to stabilize it."<br /><br />. . . at a higher level. Ergo, pronatalist.</em><br /><br />By your logic if it's at a lower level, then it's antinatalist. So it's antinatalist or pronatalist?<br /><br /><em>Anonymous said...<br />China is SingaporeNobodyhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/09952955021226297401noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-19949676.post-55132263108323326512010-01-12T07:08:43.790+00:002010-01-12T07:08:43.790+00:00Sure. The thing is, some rules people are going to...<em>Sure. The thing is, some rules people are going to try to implement just aren't going to work, and some things that governments might wanty to do are going to be impossible to implement regardless of their ethical qualities</em><br /><br />So societies will have to find a combination of rules that work. The reality of the situation is such that on one hand the world may be already Nobodyhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/09952955021226297401noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-19949676.post-69168714844513500602010-01-12T05:20:38.855+00:002010-01-12T05:20:38.855+00:00Re: minorities, any large population is going to e...Re: minorities, any large population is going to evidence numerous subpopulations which demonstrate different trends: rural versus urban, one region versus another, poor versus rich, et cetera. If the proportion of minorities was an issue--I don't think so; I think that when it's raised it's usually used as an excuse not to deal with problems of integration--then, well, only the most Randy McDonaldhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/04707497864911987241noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-19949676.post-38560544270940358702010-01-12T03:46:10.508+00:002010-01-12T03:46:10.508+00:00Nobody:
"Why it's not pro natalist? Beca...Nobody:<br /><br />"Why it's not pro natalist? Because it does not seek to escalate fertility, but only to stabilize it."<br /><br />. . . at a higher level. Ergo, pronatalist.<br /><br /><br />"The world of sub replacement fertility will be a very different one. It's a bonds market now. It's going to operate on very narrow margins. Historically important factors will Randy McDonaldhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/04707497864911987241noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-19949676.post-70149368454352512022010-01-11T23:03:11.053+00:002010-01-11T23:03:11.053+00:00Russia is at the end of transition fase between a ...Russia is at the end of transition fase between a communistic and a capitalist birth profile. In other words the postponement effect is nearing its end and that leads to highe TFR.<br /><br />China is Singapore big. And Singapore is "highly" successful with increasing their TFRAnonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-19949676.post-12648111776266570582010-01-11T18:19:14.790+00:002010-01-11T18:19:14.790+00:00Re your historical examples,With your permission I...Re your historical examples,With your permission I will tell you hat you are the case of a person who knows too much. You can send all this ballast the way of the window. The world of sub replacement fertility will be a very different one. It's a bonds market now. It's going to operate on very narrow margins. Historically important factors will have no importance in the future. The Nobodyhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/09952955021226297401noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-19949676.post-40448386897218327522010-01-11T17:08:51.422+00:002010-01-11T17:08:51.422+00:00Having proactive demographic policies does not pas...<em>Having proactive demographic policies does not pass for totalitarianism by the way.<br /><br />Your suggestions formed an integral component of Romanian policies.<</em><br /><br />My suggestions has nothing to do with any Romanian policies besides negative stimulus. You can just as well say that because Western demographic policies are usually based on positive stimulus, they are copy Nobodyhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/09952955021226297401noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-19949676.post-27702779889800140962010-01-11T16:26:29.643+00:002010-01-11T16:26:29.643+00:00Nobody:
Having proactive demographic policies doe...Nobody:<br /><br /><i>Having proactive demographic policies does not pass for totalitarianism by the way.</i><br /><br />Your suggestions formed an <a href="http://countrystudies.us/romania/37.htm" rel="nofollow">integral component of Romanian policies</a>.<br /><br /><i>The decree stipulated that abortion would be allowed only when pregnancy endangered the life of a woman or was the result of Randy McDonaldhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/04707497864911987241noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-19949676.post-30402278750879084932010-01-11T16:17:49.077+00:002010-01-11T16:17:49.077+00:00"Just to make sure that we are synced about o..."Just to make sure that we are synced about our facts. I bet you are aware that China was the world's fastest growing economy for the last few decades and this year Russia was reported to have reversed its population decline, just two-three years after Putin designated demography as the nation's number one problem in his new year address to the nation."<br /><br />Yes, there'Randy McDonaldhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/04707497864911987241noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-19949676.post-64106611691997094802010-01-11T16:09:15.493+00:002010-01-11T16:09:15.493+00:00Coercive pronatalism doesn't work in a modern ...<em>Coercive pronatalism doesn't work in a modern society. The only middle-to-high income country where those policies were applied, in Romania, was able to do so only because the country was thoroughly insulated from foreign influences and run by a totalitarian regime quite happy to micromanage the lives of its citizens.</em><br /><br />Having proactive demographic policies does not pass Nobodyhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/09952955021226297401noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-19949676.post-13018619433179123072010-01-11T07:30:52.009+00:002010-01-11T07:30:52.009+00:00By the way, if I remember it right, Eduard Hugh no...By the way, if I remember it right, Eduard Hugh noticed in one of his posts a link between awareness of dangers of low fertility and actual fertility itself.Nobodyhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/09952955021226297401noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-19949676.post-64178262127659832602010-01-11T07:23:23.437+00:002010-01-11T07:23:23.437+00:00Randy
Just to make sure that we are synced about ...Randy<br /><br />Just to make sure that we are synced about our facts. I bet you are aware that China was the world's fastest growing economy for the last few decades and this year Russia was reported to have reversed its population decline, just two-three years after Putin designated demography as the nation's number one problem in his new year address to the nation.<br /><br />Another Nobodyhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/09952955021226297401noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-19949676.post-45709196988197759722010-01-11T05:50:45.966+00:002010-01-11T05:50:45.966+00:00Cicerone:
"afaik Cuba is demographically see...Cicerone:<br /><br />"afaik Cuba is demographically seen a fail in the last years, lowest TFR in the Americas with Habana having lowest low fertility. Cuba is also the strictest dictatorship in the Americas, so it would be easy for Castro to 'encourage' Cubans to have more than their 1.4 children."<br /><br />Perhaps Cuba's demographic structures aren't dissimilar from Randy McDonaldhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/04707497864911987241noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-19949676.post-39507281943140179202010-01-11T05:20:15.287+00:002010-01-11T05:20:15.287+00:00Nobody: Um.
It's worth noting that the sorts...Nobody: Um. <br /><br />It's worth noting that the sorts of coercive pro-natalism that's being talked about here requires the imposition of a totalitarian state and traditional gender norms on a population, doesn't co-exist with a viable economy very well at all, and is ultimately fundamentally unstable. Ceaucescu's Romania was many things, but it was never a viable model for, Randy McDonaldhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/04707497864911987241noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-19949676.post-68816315642890923412010-01-08T00:12:27.248+00:002010-01-08T00:12:27.248+00:00Anonymous
You really got me with this pointless a...Anonymous<br /><br />You really got me with this pointless arguing. You are such an example of everything that's wrong about this line of thinking you represent.<br /><br /><em>You don't think that "fathers" without any connection to the child except an untrue claim will be less than ideal fathers? They also will discourage the real dad.<br /></em><br />I don't see how it Nobodyhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/09952955021226297401noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-19949676.post-61434989625220380252010-01-07T23:42:32.589+00:002010-01-07T23:42:32.589+00:00Ease of implementation is important in the realiza...Ease of implementation is important in the realization of the policy. You don't answer that except with stating Iron Fist. This simply doesn't work that well otherwise the Great Leap would be a massive success.<br /><br />You don't think that "fathers" without any connection to the child except an untrue claim will be less than ideal fathers? They also will discourage the Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-19949676.post-43135583834833804002010-01-07T23:23:12.605+00:002010-01-07T23:23:12.605+00:00By the way, I know infertile couples who adopted a...By the way, I know infertile couples who adopted and this may pass for the same as having one's own children. In short, don't worry for the CCP. If they decide that it's time for upward correction, they will find means to do it.Nobodyhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/09952955021226297401noreply@blogger.com