tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-19949676.post5914969680663856735..comments2024-03-24T20:13:39.387+00:00Comments on demography.matters.blog: More on Cuban population futuresUnknownnoreply@blogger.comBlogger22125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-19949676.post-62475904620812094202009-07-19T11:31:56.442+00:002009-07-19T11:31:56.442+00:00Edward, regarding Latvia, it already has a populat...Edward, regarding Latvia, it already has a population density greater than the U.S., and more than ten times greater than both Australia and Canada - agricultural powerhouses. It doesn't make sense that they need to increase their population in order to develop agriculturally.<br /><br />Regarding your answer to another poster, I would hardly consider "beyond 2050" to be the "Pete Murphyhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/16549342862438864973noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-19949676.post-44731892449705022002009-07-14T14:14:45.743+00:002009-07-14T14:14:45.743+00:00Thanks for both the answers. You're right, I s...Thanks for both the answers. You're right, I should have phrased the question better.<br /><br />It will be interesting to watch Spain and Italy (which is actually even older) over the next five years. It's good to have a theory to work with that not just sounds good, but is also empirically verifiable. <br /><br />I wonder if the demographic problem might prove to have much worse Aslakhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/05813371594062969329noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-19949676.post-53974513643228767052009-07-14T13:38:49.259+00:002009-07-14T13:38:49.259+00:00But on the broader issue you ask, let me cite an e...But on the broader issue you ask, let me cite an earlier question I got on Afoe this morning, and the answer I gave:<br /><br />“So it seems to me that you are saying that the growth model, on which our economies are based, is good for times of population growth, but will fail us once (if) we stabalise global population. Or is there a way round this one?”<br /><br />I’m afraid so. This would seemEdward Hughhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/10384039867580949531noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-19949676.post-16421810266591430862009-07-14T13:38:41.090+00:002009-07-14T13:38:41.090+00:00Hello Aslak,
Well let's answer the eay part o...Hello Aslak,<br /><br />Well let's answer the eay part of your question first.<br /><br />"Why is Spain running such a persistent trade deficit?"<br /><br />Well, this can be answered on two levels, the first one why is Spain ABLE to continue to run such a large CA deficit, answer becuase the eurosystem makes it possible. But that wasn't your real question, what you want to knowEdward Hughhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/10384039867580949531noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-19949676.post-61078437595836047642009-07-14T11:38:50.730+00:002009-07-14T11:38:50.730+00:00Edward,
Just out of curiosity, assuming your theor...Edward,<br />Just out of curiosity, assuming your theories are correct (and I think they're very plausible), what do you suppose will happen with the world economy when the three centers Europe, the US and East Asia, of the world economy are all aging. The US will admittedly get there slower, but who will everybody export to? India and Africa certainly can't take up the slack?<br /><br />Aslakhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/05813371594062969329noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-19949676.post-90884603049553881382009-07-14T11:18:58.831+00:002009-07-14T11:18:58.831+00:00Hello again Pete,
Well look, I certainly welcome ...Hello again Pete,<br /><br />Well look, I certainly welcome amicable and well informed excahnges of views. I mean, it makes such a change from so many people out there who are quite frankly rude. But look:<br /><br />"The only way that such societies are able to maintain low rates of unemployment is to manufacture products for export. That means that a nation like the U.S. must forever Edward Hughhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/10384039867580949531noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-19949676.post-63734033966636820802009-07-14T10:57:03.427+00:002009-07-14T10:57:03.427+00:00Whether Japanese homes are small because of govern...Whether Japanese homes are small because of government intervention or market forces, the root cause is the lack of space. <br /><br />One may counter that housing isn't a concern because we can just stack people higher and higher in apartment buildings. However, such efforts to "create" additional space only exacerbate the problem. When people begin to share walls and one personPete Murphyhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/16549342862438864973noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-19949676.post-8974649955351417702009-07-13T17:03:41.161+00:002009-07-13T17:03:41.161+00:00How does a higher population lead to a higher unem...How does a higher population lead to a higher unemployment? Don't get that so enlighten me.<br /><br /><br />The Japanese live in tiny houses because of government policy, not because of lack of space. Government like to constrict size and number of dwellings to keep prices high.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-19949676.post-78469563147156593352009-07-13T10:50:50.033+00:002009-07-13T10:50:50.033+00:00Why are you encouraging population growth in Latvi...Why are you encouraging population growth in Latvia? It must be because you believe it will boost their economy. This is the same approach taken by all economists.<br /><br />I applaud you for your concern about resources. Most economists simply dismiss it, claiming that we're ingenious enough to overcome such obstacles through recycling, substitution, improvements in efficiency and so on.Pete Murphyhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/16549342862438864973noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-19949676.post-6789393578018630522009-07-11T13:18:40.139+00:002009-07-11T13:18:40.139+00:00The thing is this, we are going to 8 billion peopl...The thing is this, we are going to 8 billion people whatever. But we can't support 8 billion people with the kinds of energy consumption levels we currently practice in Europe and the US, so something has to be done, although I doubt that politicians are going to risk explaining this to their electors.So I fear we will come at this the hard way.<br /><br />In this sense, the current crisis isEdward Hughhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/10384039867580949531noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-19949676.post-63591142922545918922009-07-11T13:15:46.501+00:002009-07-11T13:15:46.501+00:00Hi Pete, and briefly, since I ma busy this afterno...Hi Pete, and briefly, since I ma busy this afternoon trying to persuade people in Latvia to have more children, which I know you would disapprove of, but I have to do what I believe to be right.<br /><br />"Rather, we need to recognize that, as development takes root, we need to focus intently on reducing birth rates quickly, to avoid the otherwise inevitable explosion in population."<Edward Hughhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/10384039867580949531noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-19949676.post-68279462422553214532009-07-11T11:54:52.440+00:002009-07-11T11:54:52.440+00:00Edward, the problem with relying on economic devel...Edward, the problem with relying on economic development to stabilize a population is that economic development is actually the primary cause of population growth - not the cure. Yes, it does very slowly reduce the birth rate, but much more quickly reduces the death rate. <br /><br />I'm not saying that the undeveloped world should be kept impoverished. Rather, we need to recognize that, Pete Murphyhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/16549342862438864973noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-19949676.post-90644496279377072182009-07-10T13:00:22.335+00:002009-07-10T13:00:22.335+00:00Hello again Pete,
First off, I am certainly not t...Hello again Pete,<br /><br />First off, I am certainly not thinking of calling you racist or elitist. But I am looking at the population and resource issue on a global scale, and am interested in finding stability.<br /><br />Basically, my view is that the current economic depression (yes depression, not recession) has the population imbalances at its heart, and countries like Japan, Germany and Edward Hughhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/10384039867580949531noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-19949676.post-17775437440015017322009-07-10T11:18:25.355+00:002009-07-10T11:18:25.355+00:00Edward, my book addresses problems with the Americ...Edward, my book addresses problems with the American economy. My theory is that, beyond a certain "optimum" population density (the point at which over-crowding begins to erode per capita consumption), further population growth becomes cancerous, driving up unemployment and poverty. Thus, the goal is to stabilize and even reduce our population. Since rampant immigration is the sourcePete Murphyhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/16549342862438864973noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-19949676.post-69726260294890233122009-07-10T06:26:59.324+00:002009-07-10T06:26:59.324+00:00Hello Pete,
"In the book, I propose a very s...Hello Pete,<br /><br />"In the book, I propose a very slow, steady decline in population by reducing the fertility rate to 1.79 while dramatically reducing immigration."<br /><br />The first part seems fine with me, I even see this as inevitable, although I don't think fertility levels can be planned. But why the dickenms do you want to reduce immigration. Isn't the problem an Edward Hughhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/10384039867580949531noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-19949676.post-54593762953812194712009-07-10T00:03:22.316+00:002009-07-10T00:03:22.316+00:00Edward, since you are an economist, I'd like t...Edward, since you are an economist, I'd like to offer you a complimentary copy of my book. I have been trying to win over economists to my theory and you seem to be among the few who would advocate for even a stable population. If you'll contact me with a shipping address, I'll be happy to get a copy into the mail to you - free of charge and no strings attached. I promise you that Pete Murphyhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/16549342862438864973noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-19949676.post-76174205549238993422009-07-09T22:07:48.603+00:002009-07-09T22:07:48.603+00:00But that replacement level is the problem. I don&#...But that replacement level is the problem. I don't see how you could get there when you consider that some people can't get children and other stay single during their fertile years. That means that those others need to get on average 2.5 children and that is way to hard to implement socially. <br /><br /><br /><br />ps. I know there are those who are not single and can get children and Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-19949676.post-78205099656196802362009-07-09T17:40:39.610+00:002009-07-09T17:40:39.610+00:00Hello Pete,
"Many people, including most eco...Hello Pete,<br /><br />"Many people, including most economists, see never-ending population growth as the only way to head off concerns about how to deal with "an aging population." "<br /><br />Well I think we need to be careful here. I personally don't think we need "never ending populatioon growth" to deal with ageing, but I do think we need more sustainable Edward Hughhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/10384039867580949531noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-19949676.post-943816951786822352009-07-09T12:36:16.000+00:002009-07-09T12:36:16.000+00:00Many people, including most economists, see never-...Many people, including most economists, see never-ending population growth as the only way to head off concerns about how to deal with "an aging population." But, since simple laws of physics dictate that never-ending population growth is impossible, this approach is doomed to failure and only assures that we'll be faced with an even bigger problem at some point in the future. <brPete Murphyhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/16549342862438864973noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-19949676.post-70116775071444159062009-07-09T06:49:58.995+00:002009-07-09T06:49:58.995+00:00Between people smugglers and rafts they manage som...Between people smugglers and rafts they manage something like 1.5 people per thousand residents in emigration if I remember correctly. (Seventh happiest nation on Earth they tell me - says something about Earth I tell them.)<br /><br />While somewhere (likely this blog, I think) I was informed that total fertility rates can be inacurrate when reproductive patterns are changing, Cuba has an Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-19949676.post-51996851151498493452009-07-09T01:57:08.829+00:002009-07-09T01:57:08.829+00:00Emigration also creates a negative population mome...<i>Emigration also creates a negative population momentum, as the young people emigrate, so the number of potential mothers is shrinking even faster than the total population.</i><br /><br />If I'm not mistaken, Cuba tightly restricts emigration. Almost all of the Cubans who've arrived in Florida in recent years have escaped by boat.<br /><br />PeterAnonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-19949676.post-78226716180757720952009-07-09T00:54:28.816+00:002009-07-09T00:54:28.816+00:00Looks like Cuba faces a very poisonous combination...Looks like Cuba faces a very poisonous combination of very low fertility with emigration. In my opinion, the population prognosis is too optimistic. If the population already shrinks now, and the fertility rate stands at 1.4, the population momentum has to decline very quickly. Emigration also creates a negative population momentum, as the young people emigrate, so the number of potential mothersCiceronenoreply@blogger.com