tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-19949676.post4046596855828945293..comments2024-03-24T20:13:39.387+00:00Comments on demography.matters.blog: Demographic Link DumpUnknownnoreply@blogger.comBlogger11125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-19949676.post-76136588371004333712009-07-18T19:08:56.127+00:002009-07-18T19:08:56.127+00:00You're right that 2.1 really is only for the d...You're right that 2.1 really is only for the developed world. It actually is usually a little bit lower, in the 2.06-2.08 range depending on the country. As for the global replacement rate, it should be somewhere around 2.3-2.4 not that far off from global TFR at 2.6! Obviously, global TFR might go down if infant mortality decreases. I'll put up a post on this sometime next week.Aslakhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/05813371594062969329noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-19949676.post-6983204726794310142009-07-18T18:44:02.380+00:002009-07-18T18:44:02.380+00:00Hi Aslak,
What do you reckon replacement fertilit...Hi Aslak,<br /><br />What do you reckon replacement fertility is world-wide? Is 2.1 only really valid for high-income low-mortality countries?Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-19949676.post-38793796048413940592009-07-16T08:48:24.488+00:002009-07-16T08:48:24.488+00:00Well, I want to be cautious. Predicting future fer...Well, I want to be cautious. Predicting future fertility is extremely difficult and I think the most honest answer is that noone really knows. If you look at the Middle East, you had, and still have in some countries, fertility rates that were high and stable and then plummeted really fast. I think there is good reasons to expect fertility to decline in Subsaharan Africa, but I wouldn't want Aslakhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/05813371594062969329noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-19949676.post-54085539839887573932009-07-16T01:15:29.781+00:002009-07-16T01:15:29.781+00:00Thanks a lot, Aslak. I also note with interest yo...Thanks a lot, Aslak. I also note with interest your saying that the UN numbers tend to underestimate fertility decline - I can see where there might be political and professional reasons to be cautious predicting such declines - after all, for the developing world a prediction of lower fertility is going to count as "good news", and one doesn't want to over-promise or make it look Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-19949676.post-87954594568038938482009-07-15T17:19:28.957+00:002009-07-15T17:19:28.957+00:00Short version: The UN is generally a little bit mo...Short version: The UN is generally a little bit more updated and less reliant on overly detailed projections.Aslakhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/05813371594062969329noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-19949676.post-58401914417607748072009-07-15T17:11:10.706+00:002009-07-15T17:11:10.706+00:00Most demographic data for developing countries com...Most demographic data for developing countries come either from surveys made every 5th year or or censuses which are usually held every tenth year. This Demographers then make projections based on these data. In theory, the data should be pretty reliable and in most countries I think they are, but there's a lot of uncertainty in certain countries. In very diverse countries it's hard to Aslakhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/05813371594062969329noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-19949676.post-71345978913009185212009-07-15T15:34:24.197+00:002009-07-15T15:34:24.197+00:00Thanks for this post. I've been wondering abo...Thanks for this post. I've been wondering about the UN Pop vs. CIA factbook thing - I follow the updates for both, esp. regarding TFR's. Obviously their numbers differ somewhat, and both sources do shift them around a good bit, so I was wondering, how much margin of error should we assume in TFR's, esp. for developing countries? And if the UN figures are better, why? It seems Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-19949676.post-20771142151113439122009-07-15T01:24:40.822+00:002009-07-15T01:24:40.822+00:00Maybe the immigrants are smart enough to get invol...Maybe the immigrants are smart enough to get involved in the local stupidity. As a descendant of an southern protestant Irish immigrant I can honestly say that any pride I had in that disgusting little island has long ago been bombed and marched out of me. But the real diseased IRA and the prancing Ulster marching/rock-throwing society do serve a purpose; they teach sensible Irish young people ofAnonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-19949676.post-1879105363390583542009-07-15T00:34:49.395+00:002009-07-15T00:34:49.395+00:00I ask because i wonder which side immigrants choos...I ask because i wonder which side immigrants choose. This would indicate the nationalistic side is more friendlyAnonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-19949676.post-50987436853186099442009-07-14T18:19:05.628+00:002009-07-14T18:19:05.628+00:00From what I gather, it was extreme loyalists -They...From what I gather, it was extreme loyalists -They used slogans like "White Brits only", which obviously the nationalist side wouldn't use. I don't know how representative for the loyalists that really is though.Aslakhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/05813371594062969329noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-19949676.post-42218822523531343082009-07-14T16:34:49.301+00:002009-07-14T16:34:49.301+00:00For which side did the Ulster Romanians flee. Was ...For which side did the Ulster Romanians flee. Was it the protestant side or the catholic sideAnonymousnoreply@blogger.com