tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-19949676.post3184798640491592746..comments2024-03-24T20:13:39.387+00:00Comments on demography.matters.blog: On Jamaican population trendsUnknownnoreply@blogger.comBlogger5125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-19949676.post-86832833330010484662009-09-03T02:10:26.305+00:002009-09-03T02:10:26.305+00:00Class and relative income is a good predictor of f...Class and relative income is a good predictor of fertility. It is not exactly a secret that blacks are poorer than whites in America which is IMHO the reason for their higher fertility rate. European blacks are comparative much closer to their white countrymen and from the country i know the ftr from it is only slightly higher.<br /><br />Jamaica is predominantly black so black Jamaicans don'Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-19949676.post-45583141461997735612009-09-02T22:51:29.350+00:002009-09-02T22:51:29.350+00:00After making the last post I began to agree with C...After making the last post I began to agree with Cicerone's statement that "We don't know yet..." to a great extent than before. There is some data that gives clues about what might happen in this area but it is rather limited.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-19949676.post-51420935265165928682009-09-02T18:08:45.023+00:002009-09-02T18:08:45.023+00:00While I agree with what you say the fertility I st...While I agree with what you say the fertility I still think the 1.9 number could prove to be a bit high. It does seem that the fertility will decline much slower in Jamaica than in most of Asia, including the Middle East, since it has been falling at a much slower rate in recent times. <br /><br />The fertility gap from the black population of the U.S. and the white population seems to be Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-19949676.post-31801073663708914652009-09-02T13:54:37.633+00:002009-09-02T13:54:37.633+00:00There are cultural differences. We don't know ...There are cultural differences. We don't know yet how a developed country behaves, of which the majority of the people are black christians. In Canada and the USA, the fertility rate of black people is 0.3 higher than the rate of white people in these countries, so maybe Jamaica will decline only to 1.9?Ciceronenoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-19949676.post-13234414654962177222009-09-02T01:40:59.674+00:002009-09-02T01:40:59.674+00:00If Jamaica's path is similar to that followed ...If Jamaica's path is similar to that followed by most of the developed states then the TFR prediction might be somewhat conservative. Few developed states have a TFR 1.9 and some late demographic stage developing states (Cuba for example) have substantially below that number as well.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.com