tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-19949676.post115849816860376086..comments2024-03-24T20:13:39.387+00:00Comments on demography.matters.blog: Migration IrelandUnknownnoreply@blogger.comBlogger12125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-19949676.post-31698164301642322952007-09-17T07:23:00.000+00:002007-09-17T07:23:00.000+00:00Hi anonymous,"You will find that in most case stor...Hi anonymous,<BR/><BR/>"You will find that in most case stories of migrants to Ireland that their ultimate goal is to raise enough money to buy a house in their own country"<BR/><BR/>Yes, I'm sure you are right. And this is now becoming a big problem, creating a hugely inflationary housing bubble in some East European countries. The Baltics are an obvious example, but Poland and Romania cannot beEdward Hughhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/10384039867580949531noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-19949676.post-91145877410715897182007-09-16T21:14:00.000+00:002007-09-16T21:14:00.000+00:00You will find that in most case stories of migrant...You will find that in most case stories of migrants to Ireland that their ultimate goal is to raise enough money to buy a house in their own country.It is only on their return that they will start a family.I of course mean the East European migrants.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-19949676.post-1159691704424752562006-10-01T08:35:00.000+00:002006-10-01T08:35:00.000+00:00"Low levels of fertility are more or less inevitab..."Low levels of fertility are more or less inevitable, there are sound economic reasons why people only have one or two children."<BR/><BR/>-- this is completely unsustainable. <BR/><BR/>If each successive generation is smaller, then the depencency ratio will never get any better.<BR/><BR/>The greater the fall in numbers from generation to generation, the worse things will be.<BR/><BR/>There Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-19949676.post-1159691474089904622006-10-01T08:31:00.000+00:002006-10-01T08:31:00.000+00:00As an aside, TFR's in the US have been rising abou...As an aside, TFR's in the US have been rising about 0.1 per decade since the 1970's, or a little more, with a tendency for the increase to accelerate over time.<BR/><BR/>It was around 1.7 then, around 2.09 now -- up from 2.00 in 2000.<BR/><BR/>At the same time, regional disparities have also increased.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-19949676.post-1159691381948725862006-10-01T08:29:00.000+00:002006-10-01T08:29:00.000+00:00"This is just putting off the evil day, which is s..."This is just putting off the evil day, which is sort of pointless."<BR/><BR/>I think what you are missing here, Sterling, is what we could call the 'transitional dynamics' of the situation. This, in economic terms, is what will make the difference between having a hard or a soft landing.<BR/><BR/>A hard landing would definitely mean a global economic crash, so I think it is well worth trying to Edward Hughhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/10384039867580949531noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-19949676.post-1159691263978167592006-10-01T08:27:00.000+00:002006-10-01T08:27:00.000+00:00"If, however, as is the case in eg the US, migrant..."If, however, as is the case in eg the US, migrants have a slightly higher birth rate than locals (hispanics 2.8 tfr, US as a whole 2.0) then this pushes up the tfr."<BR/><BR/>-- not quite. US TFR is currently 2.09, and Hispanic TFR overall is around 2.6, so the difference is about 0.4-0.5.<BR/><BR/>This is largely a product of immigration from Mexico and Central America. Puerto Ricans and Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-19949676.post-1159691011700254222006-10-01T08:23:00.000+00:002006-10-01T08:23:00.000+00:00"So migration 'thickens' some cohorts, and this is..."So migration 'thickens' some cohorts, and this is part of its importance, it slows the inversion of the pyramid."<BR/><BR/>-- well, yeah, for a little while.<BR/><BR/>But say reproductive-age Polish people migrate to Ireland, and assume they have the same reproductive behavior they would in Poland.<BR/><BR/>That means they'll have 1.25 children per woman on average; as opposed to 1.86 for the Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-19949676.post-1158915086208519392006-09-22T08:51:00.000+00:002006-09-22T08:51:00.000+00:00"Immigration of people in the young-adult category..."Immigration of people in the young-adult category may push up the CBR, but it doesn't affect the TFR at all."<BR/><BR/>I think, Sterling, that there may be a point here which is worth clarifying, since it relates to the whole debate about pyramid structure, postponement, and missing births. Wolfgang Lutz has been pushing this argument for all he is worth, but few seem to have seen it's Edward Hughhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/10384039867580949531noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-19949676.post-1158730017384567682006-09-20T05:26:00.000+00:002006-09-20T05:26:00.000+00:00In fact, immigration of people from Eastern Europe...In fact, immigration of people from Eastern Europe (which is where most of Ireland's immigrants come from) will probably _depress_ the TFR, since the source countries have much lower fertility than Ireland.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-19949676.post-1158729956204333682006-09-20T05:25:00.000+00:002006-09-20T05:25:00.000+00:00"This can in part be due to the impact of migratio..."This can in part be due to the impact of migration, since migrants are laregly in the young childbearing ages. This then has a statistical impact."<BR/><BR/>-- not on TFR, it doesn't. TFR is more significant than the Crude Birth Rate precisely because it isn't affected by changes in the relative size of age-cohorts.<BR/><BR/>Immigration of people in the young-adult category may push up the CBR,Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-19949676.post-1158645412476439962006-09-19T05:56:00.000+00:002006-09-19T05:56:00.000+00:00Hi anonymous,"Births exceeded deaths in 2005 by 34...Hi anonymous,<BR/><BR/>"Births exceeded deaths in 2005 by 34,200. If mortality had remained unchanged from 2005 to 2006, then the net natural increase would have fallen to 32,600. Precisely 1.5% of Ireland's population growth was due to lengthening lifespans in 2006, not one-third."<BR/><BR/>Just to clarify some things. The main point of the post was that two thirds of Ireland's population growthAdminhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/07431230172942198078noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-19949676.post-1158617469187799792006-09-18T22:11:00.000+00:002006-09-18T22:11:00.000+00:00This is a very odd post. Two things jump out."The...This is a very odd post. Two things jump out.<BR/><BR/>"The other component coming naturally from increasing life expectancy, since fertility is now below replacement level."<BR/><BR/>And ...<BR/><BR/>"Fertility is now down to around the 1.9 Tfr."<BR/><BR/>Both of the above are just wrong. <BR/><BR/>Births exceeded deaths in 2005 by 34,200. If mortality had remained unchanged from 2005 to 2006Anonymousnoreply@blogger.com