tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-19949676.post6238990147367292068..comments2024-03-24T20:13:39.387+00:00Comments on demography.matters.blog: How many babies are Europeans actually having?Unknownnoreply@blogger.comBlogger20125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-19949676.post-33081388433396150342014-04-30T06:41:39.720+00:002014-04-30T06:41:39.720+00:00Read about hair fall treatment gurgaon. Also know ...<br />Read about <a href="http://www.skindelhi.com/hair_loss.html" rel="nofollow">hair fall treatment gurgaon</a>. Also know Hair Fall.<br />Allanhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/04414023777592108747noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-19949676.post-42316529932296458202009-08-08T13:03:09.051+00:002009-08-08T13:03:09.051+00:00Thanks for this courageous blog.
As a Frenchman, ...Thanks for this courageous blog.<br /><br />As a Frenchman, father of four, living inside a big city, may I say that there is indeed a fairly natalistic consensus running here.<br /><br />No merit here. Possibly for some historical reasons, we are just lucky not to get trapped in religious clichés on the subject. <br /><br />As a politician or a citizen, you do need need to right-winger to say Daniel in Parisnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-19949676.post-30122122576196800402009-08-02T00:53:02.958+00:002009-08-02T00:53:02.958+00:00I read stuff like this and wonder if the center of...I read stuff like this and wonder if the center of power will return to its 18th Century locus: Paris.<br /><br />Ca ne será pas trop mal. Au moins, il y aurá de bonne nourriture.Michael Carr - Veritas Literaryhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/04017030835398885411noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-19949676.post-32361697037967549622009-08-01T14:25:31.746+00:002009-08-01T14:25:31.746+00:00With contraception you mean the pill or everything...With contraception you mean the pill or everything. Japan for instance uses mostly condoms as birth control. USSR was a heavy user of abortion as contraceptive and wikipedia claims a failure rate of 3% for the basal body temperature methode.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-19949676.post-70789522992166019732009-08-01T08:31:09.693+00:002009-08-01T08:31:09.693+00:00And if one is unprejudiced enough, then it is even...And if one is unprejudiced enough, then it is even possible to understand reason of this correlation between the speed of demographic transition and the fertility low thereafter. <br /><br />By the way: The assumption that every child is planned and that low-fertilty countries would have high fertility rates without contraception and abortion should not be taken for granted. A main problem of Wolfgang G. Gasserhttp://members.lol.li/twostone/E/demography.htmlnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-19949676.post-33519019376649551142009-07-30T23:02:00.980+00:002009-07-30T23:02:00.980+00:00Maybe France was lucky to have the transition that...Maybe France was lucky to have the transition that early, because experience tells us that the later and the faster the demographic transition takes place, the lower the TFR will fall.Ciceronenoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-19949676.post-46302123987224708762009-07-30T19:06:48.316+00:002009-07-30T19:06:48.316+00:00@ Randy: In reply to my previous comment, I'd ...@ Randy: In reply to my previous comment, I'd intended "immigrants we're worried about" sarcastically. Gack.Randy McDonaldhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/04707497864911987241noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-19949676.post-86567456765992793112009-07-30T16:45:27.153+00:002009-07-30T16:45:27.153+00:00Just to add to what Randy said, it's true that...Just to add to what Randy said, it's true that France was the first country to experience the demographic transition, but fertility never fell that low in France. Also, because it was so early it was among the first countries to have an explicitly natalist policy, in part to keep up with Germany. The contribution of immigrants to French fertility is not completely non-existent but it's Aslakhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/05813371594062969329noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-19949676.post-29004602337721424122009-07-30T16:22:28.332+00:002009-07-30T16:22:28.332+00:00http://fr.wikipedia.org/wiki/F%C3%A9condit%C3%A9_d...http://fr.wikipedia.org/wiki/F%C3%A9condit%C3%A9_des_r%C3%A9gions_de_France<br /><br />Fertility rates have been consistently high and rising across the whole of France, including in regions like Bretagne, Centre, Basse- and Haute-Normandie, and Poitou-Charentes, regions with few of the immigrants we're worried about.Randy McDonaldhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/04707497864911987241noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-19949676.post-38865547706923787692009-07-30T16:13:19.015+00:002009-07-30T16:13:19.015+00:00At first sight, I was surprised that France 's...At first sight, I was surprised that France 'scored' high here, as Norway and Ireland did. After all, the French population started to decline earlier than in other Western European countries. So I sense a - well, let's say - problematic issue here, that the somewhat higher fertility in France is due to immigrant population having more babies. It's likely not the Fenchmen per se Miacekhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/06272409941034494173noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-19949676.post-77125759843622797802009-07-30T07:20:35.747+00:002009-07-30T07:20:35.747+00:00Swod: The Korean TFR is as far as I knowd the lowe...Swod: The Korean TFR is as far as I knowd the lowest of any major country (not counting Hong Kong). I was actually looking for data on the change in maternal age at birth. I couldn't find exactly what I was looking at, but the OECD family data base had date on maternal age at first birth, which should be similar given the extremely low TFR. It did rise a lot, at least until recently which Aslakhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/05813371594062969329noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-19949676.post-53225707195168521192009-07-30T02:17:14.924+00:002009-07-30T02:17:14.924+00:00Looked up how ATFR is calculated and i see a probl...Looked up how ATFR is calculated and i see a problem. It assumes a gradual change which i don't think is always reality. Especially in the former communist countries i would expect a shock.<br /><br />ps. What happened in the Czech Republic in 93 (94 has a sudden increase in first births but babies take 9 months to make)<br /><br />ps2. I find the data extremely smooth for the Czech Republic.Anon1,5noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-19949676.post-20210606445943020872009-07-29T23:55:51.460+00:002009-07-29T23:55:51.460+00:00I made the third and sixth posts (anon #2).
This ...I made the third and sixth posts (anon #2).<br /><br />This site says the NSO recorded South Korea's TFR as 1.13 for 2006: <br /><br />http://www.korea.net/news/news/NewsView.asp?serial_no=20070507012&part=109&SearchDay=<br /><br />The number was reported as 1.08 for 2005.<br /> <br /><br />This site reported the number for 2008 as 1.19:<br /> http://joongangdaily.joins.com/articleThe Fall of the House of Usherhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/15108148690224132964noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-19949676.post-32035200759312180542009-07-29T18:22:08.303+00:002009-07-29T18:22:08.303+00:00Anon 1 (You guys should use nick names, it makes i...Anon 1 (You guys should use nick names, it makes it easier to tell you apart): If you look in the paper Claus linked to in the first comment, the calculation is explained in the appendix.<br /><br />Anon 2: From what I remember, the average at birth for hispanics is pretty stable and low, my guess is it wouldn't deviate much from the TFR of around 2.9 (if I remember correctly)<br /><br /> YouAslakhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/05813371594062969329noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-19949676.post-25906736694323863322009-07-29T17:15:00.851+00:002009-07-29T17:15:00.851+00:00True, the large scale emigration from Eastern Euro...True, the large scale emigration from Eastern Europe and the Balkans will make the demographic problems worse than they would otherwise be. The countries of the Caucasus region will probably have similar troubles and without the benefits of E.U. membership any time soon. Also, it seems like many of the low fertility countries in Asia will also probably face similar problems in the relatively Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-19949676.post-43902244579587470432009-07-29T17:10:44.166+00:002009-07-29T17:10:44.166+00:00How is ATFR calculated?How is ATFR calculated?Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-19949676.post-13733650310669874592009-07-29T16:23:57.146+00:002009-07-29T16:23:57.146+00:00Anonymous:
Yes, f you look at the most recent data...Anonymous:<br />Yes, f you look at the most recent data, there clearly has been an uptick in TFR as expected.<br /><br />I think if you look at the Balkans you're right that in some cases the fertility rate is really not that bad, but there is a serious problem with essentially mass emigration in much of Eastern Europe in addition to the fact that these countries are generally poorer and thusAslakhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/05813371594062969329noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-19949676.post-5265870225121973482009-07-29T14:22:04.037+00:002009-07-29T14:22:04.037+00:00The ATFR shown for Georgia was above 1.80. That i...The ATFR shown for Georgia was above 1.80. That is much higher than the current level. Armenia had about 1.64 which, though low, is considerably better than the current TFR.<br /><br />It seems that several Balkan countries will not actually be much worse than the European average if the TFRs rise to the ATFR level. In fact many might be better off than Italy and the Iberian countries.<br /><Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-19949676.post-29287428706379161102009-07-29T12:07:07.500+00:002009-07-29T12:07:07.500+00:00Claus, thanks for the link, I hadn't read the ...Claus, thanks for the link, I hadn't read the paper before.<br /><br />ATFR does have weaknesses, but I do think it is a much more accurate measure of the overall level of fertility than simply TFR. Certainly, if you look at cohort fertility rates in Europe it seems like they're much more likely to end up aligning with ATFR than with TFR.Aslakhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/05813371594062969329noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-19949676.post-888993376980921642009-07-29T09:49:10.105+00:002009-07-29T09:49:10.105+00:00For those interested, here is the paper by Bongaar...For those interested, here is the paper by Bongaarts and Feeney which originally proposed the Adjusted TFR; <br /><br />http://www.popcouncil.org/pdfs/councilarticles/pdr/PDR242Bongaarts.pdf<br /><br />The Atfr measure has been subject to quite an extensive critique from several authors but the underlying intuition is important. The key is the extent to which one assumes that that the tempo CVhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/16843402165210120665noreply@blogger.com