tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-19949676.post5000584019487950485..comments2024-03-24T20:13:39.387+00:00Comments on demography.matters.blog: The decadent shall inherit the EarthUnknownnoreply@blogger.comBlogger17125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-19949676.post-85533048375834430902009-07-23T10:34:21.463+00:002009-07-23T10:34:21.463+00:00I'm getting more and more convinced that TFR v...I'm getting more and more convinced that TFR values are pretty much misleading. Let's take Iran for example. They have a TFR of 1,71 which could give one the impression that Iran is loosing population, while in fact they still have 17.7 birth/1000 population and only 5.72 deaths/1000!, it's far away of loosing population.Unknownhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/04120294124752919727noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-19949676.post-75229958917386024622009-07-19T09:58:11.810+00:002009-07-19T09:58:11.810+00:00Look, Wolfgang, you're proposing that there is...Look, Wolfgang, you're proposing that there is some kind of natural balance where populations will stabilize and even that gender balance is inevitable. With respect, this is more of a mystical concept than a scientific one. Italy's sex ration at birth is where it should be and it's sex ratio at death is not surprising in an aged society because of higher female life expectancy which Aslakhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/05813371594062969329noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-19949676.post-30317191947729903362009-07-19T09:43:25.178+00:002009-07-19T09:43:25.178+00:00Randy: "One thought on demographic saturation...Randy: "One thought on demographic saturation (carrying capacity)?"<br /><br />Demographic saturation (of populations, not of regions), as I use it, has nothing to do with carrying capacity.<br /><br />Randy: "At the same time, it's Italy and Japan that are experiencing net natural decrease."<br /><br />Both are good examples of countries with a saturated population, whereWolfganghttp://members.lol.li/twostone/E/demography.htmlnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-19949676.post-25316877033856089782009-07-18T23:57:21.538+00:002009-07-18T23:57:21.538+00:00Wolfgang:
"[W]hereas older emigrants have te...Wolfgang:<br /><br />"[W]hereas older emigrants have tended to return to the nations where they or their parents had come from, younger persons often have preferred to emigrate to richer countries outside the former Soviet Bloc (Warsaw Pact)."<br /><br />Older people have emigrated to countries outside of the former Soviet Bloc as well. Russia, as by far the richest of the various CIS Randy McDonaldhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/04707497864911987241noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-19949676.post-64810331017131395122009-07-18T21:31:53.348+00:002009-07-18T21:31:53.348+00:00Aslak: "... and there's plenty of evidenc...Aslak: "... and there's plenty of evidence to the contrary - like Russia, where the population has been declining substantially despite net immigration."<br /><br />I have dealt with this in the chapters 'The effect of migration on direct-replacement fertility' and 'The emergence of natural decrease' of my site. A quote from the first:<br /><br />"Let us look atWolfganghttp://members.lol.li/twostone/demography/critical_analysis.htmlnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-19949676.post-9317424710069109132009-07-18T19:14:34.622+00:002009-07-18T19:14:34.622+00:00Well, what I meant by no historical track record i...Well, what I meant by no historical track record is that there's no evidence of your theory as of now that isn't better explained by more conventional theory and there's plenty of evidence to the contrary -like Russia, where the population has been declining substantially despite net immigration.<br /><br />As for Hong Kong, when age at birth stabilizes there, the total fertility rateAslakhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/05813371594062969329noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-19949676.post-42507060453121570722009-07-18T18:54:33.793+00:002009-07-18T18:54:33.793+00:00The concept 'saturation' as I use it in th...The concept 'saturation' as I use it in the demographic saturation theory is not an EXTERNAL but an INTERNAL property of populations. A population having reached saturation cannot grow further in number, independently from space, food and so.<br /><br />Within a purely materialistic world-view (where organisms are essentially complex machines, in principle reproducible ad infinitum), a Wolfganghttp://members.lol.li/twostone/E/demography.htmlnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-19949676.post-37244394019574386282009-07-18T15:28:29.329+00:002009-07-18T15:28:29.329+00:00Wolfgang, if I understand you correctly, you'r...Wolfgang, if I understand you correctly, you're saying that populations will naturally tend towards stable growth "independently of other causes", as you say. What would the mechanism be here? Much of the recovery in TFR in Europe is explained by stabilizing age at birth (see http://demographymatters.blogspot.com/2009/05/is-european-fertility-rebounding.html). Nor is there a Aslakhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/05813371594062969329noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-19949676.post-9815161425315163232009-07-18T14:42:14.100+00:002009-07-18T14:42:14.100+00:00"It's cohort fertility that matters in th..."It's cohort fertility that matters in the end"<br /><br />It's direct-replacement fertility that matters in the end. <br /><br />In the process of normal demographic transition, populations reach lows in fertilities which from then on increase again until they eventually reach or surpass generation-replacement fertility (the well-known 2.1 value). The developed countries with Wolfganghttp://members.lol.li/twostone/demography/critical_analysis.htmlnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-19949676.post-45995467702407063112009-07-17T02:54:07.469+00:002009-07-17T02:54:07.469+00:00It's cohort fertility that matters in the end,...It's cohort fertility that matters in the end, of course; TFRs are only so useful.<br /><br />For whatever it's worth, Québec does _not_ share the fertility patterns of France: Cohort fertility is 1.6 versus 2.0 or so in France, and the rise in TFRs recently is only the standard process of postponed fertility being partially recuperated. Québec's fertility patterns seem to be shared Randy McDonaldhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/04707497864911987241noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-19949676.post-33301351462016577092009-07-17T02:27:37.223+00:002009-07-17T02:27:37.223+00:00Switzerland is very interesting. It seems that the...Switzerland is very interesting. It seems that the different ethnic groups in Switzerland follow their companions in the main countries, demographically seen. French speaking Swiss people have fertility rates around 1.55 to 1.6, Germans have 1.45 and Italian speaking people have a TFR of a bit below 1.3. Funny, isn't it? It seems that even a union of these peoples that has lasted for at leastCiceronenoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-19949676.post-68926143860605364512009-07-17T01:11:27.160+00:002009-07-17T01:11:27.160+00:00Cicerone:
The thing about Estonia is that it'...Cicerone:<br /><br />The thing about Estonia is that it's also a biconfessional country, Protestant and Eastern Orthodox, i.e. ethnic Estonian and Russophone. The information that I have suggests that the ~1.5 figure is an average of two significantly different populations, the ethnic Estonians behaving more like Nordic people and the Russophones behaving like, well, Russophones. <br /><br />Randy McDonaldhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/04707497864911987241noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-19949676.post-59517023769542595532009-07-17T00:49:33.692+00:002009-07-17T00:49:33.692+00:00That is interesting. If the model (regarding more...That is interesting. If the model (regarding more Protestant and more Catholic countries) holds across the Atlantic then the most Latin American countries might be similar to Catholic Europe (although perhaps with some variation).<br /><br />By the way, Bulgaria's TFR seems to have moved up to 1.48. <br />Here is a link about Bulgaria's birth rate:<br /> http://www.novinite.com/Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-19949676.post-90757368402001621452009-07-16T22:03:08.015+00:002009-07-16T22:03:08.015+00:00Ok, edit: Latvia is more mixed between the confess...Ok, edit: Latvia is more mixed between the confessions. It's fertility rate is at 1.45 in 2008, and maybe it'll follow Estonia's way, as the majority of the christians are protestant.Ciceronenoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-19949676.post-6998325191057879572009-07-16T21:55:04.821+00:002009-07-16T21:55:04.821+00:00By the way, what are the measures of the UK on tha...By the way, what are the measures of the UK on that topic? It seems that the UK is able to reach a fertility rate similar to France without the comprehensive family policy of France. <br /><br />I would draw the line between catholic and protestant countries. Nearly all of the developed countries that are just a bit below replacement fertility are more protestant, with the exceptions being FranceCiceronenoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-19949676.post-2238378418081025162009-07-16T20:54:25.011+00:002009-07-16T20:54:25.011+00:00I agree. It is, I think, really a cultural issue a...I agree. It is, I think, really a cultural issue and one which apparently is difficult to overcome in a lot of countries. I'm personally pessmistic about this for a lot of countries, but who knows? Sometimes cultural change can be very quick.<br /><br />I think it's important to note that at least in the Nordic countries and France, the ability to combine careers and family life has been Aslakhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/05813371594062969329noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-19949676.post-56251055346538345542009-07-16T19:55:03.958+00:002009-07-16T19:55:03.958+00:00Hi Aslak,
Very interesting point.
Clearly ... ...Hi Aslak, <br /><br />Very interesting point. <br /><br />Clearly ... the ability of societies to combine the foundation for a flexible family structure with the ability of woman to control their fertility regardless of their labour supply decisions is a key issue. <br /><br />So, for some economies there might be a win-win feedback loop in place (Scandinavia ex Sweden, France and perhaps the US CVhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/16843402165210120665noreply@blogger.com