tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-19949676.post4409189161795987328..comments2024-03-24T20:13:39.387+00:00Comments on demography.matters.blog: Demographic warfare and the Israeli-Palestinian conflictUnknownnoreply@blogger.comBlogger20125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-19949676.post-66366545920805294282009-08-11T09:34:04.966+00:002009-08-11T09:34:04.966+00:00My comment is a bit late but do you know about the...My comment is a bit late but do you know about the study that said that the number of Palestinian has been widely exaggerated and the real numbers are 1.5 million in the West Bank (not including Jerusalem) and 1.1 in Gaza ?<br />That would change a lot.Benjnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-19949676.post-21904904081881551482009-06-18T09:33:45.118+00:002009-06-18T09:33:45.118+00:00Aslak said...
J,
Everything in the articl...<em>Aslak said...<br /><br /> J,<br /> Everything in the article depends on current trends continuing, Palestinian fertility declining and Jewish fertility remaining stable, because that's what I think most most likely. Evidently, that may or may not be true. I'm sceptical toward long-term projection precisely because assumptions like the ones I'm making often turn out wrong. WeNobodyhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/09952955021226297401noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-19949676.post-36485305064597557532009-06-15T06:28:24.002+00:002009-06-15T06:28:24.002+00:00According to the CIA Factbook the TFR in the West ...According to the CIA Factbook the TFR in the West bank is 3.2, which probably makes it the same as for Israeli Arabs without the Bedouin sector. The Bedouins make all the difference. You should have also covered the work of Ettinger and his guys who claim that the Palestinians have been systematically inflating their demographic statistics. Their work seems to have been endorsed by Nicholas Nobodyhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/09952955021226297401noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-19949676.post-22889882649553082702009-06-14T10:57:25.189+00:002009-06-14T10:57:25.189+00:00Aslak: Well, I'm glad to know that you got you...Aslak: Well, I'm glad to know that you got your numbers right at least.<br /><br />I've been thinking about your comment on the settler's power and I've come to the conclusion that you are seeing this issue in a manner which is the exact opposite of political reality in Israel.<br /><br />Based on the history of Religious-Zionism I would say that this small minority has been used-joenoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-19949676.post-74751220451843649362009-06-14T10:08:34.146+00:002009-06-14T10:08:34.146+00:00I was going to write about settler demography, but...I was going to write about settler demography, but it seems like this <a href="http://www.jpost.com/servlet/Satellite?cid=1244371086785&pagename=JPost%2FJPArticle%2FShowFull" rel="nofollow">excellent article</a> in the Jerusalem post did it for me:<br /><br />Highly recommendedAslakhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/05813371594062969329noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-19949676.post-40223893601903215252009-06-14T08:19:29.201+00:002009-06-14T08:19:29.201+00:00J,
on the one hand, the rigorous, ideological ant...J, <br />on the one hand, the rigorous, ideological anti-religeon of, say, early kibbutzniks, may be well and solidly dead as a movement in Israeli society, but I don't think the willingness of secular jews to have various jewish cultural practices translates - for the most part, and bit on this later - into any ideological afffinity for policies of the more strictly religeous. Nobody in theTamarahttps://www.blogger.com/profile/09002115690340326679noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-19949676.post-67405876337843174212009-06-14T07:12:32.554+00:002009-06-14T07:12:32.554+00:00Tamara,
cultural jewish practices, like Seder, Ba...Tamara,<br /><br /><i>cultural jewish practices, like Seder, Bar Mitzva or even a Yom Kippur fast...</i><br /><br />Are these cultural practices? If so, we basically agree and our differences are in the semantics - what is cultural and what is religious. Since I am of the idea that most of the haredim are, deep down, agnostic and dont really believe in the existence of God, all we have is Jhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/05676167615981895061noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-19949676.post-27797055097064669072009-06-13T18:38:26.476+00:002009-06-13T18:38:26.476+00:00CTyankee,
I think I would agree with your general ...CTyankee,<br />I think I would agree with your general idea that the uptick is largely driven by the Haredi but with a couple of caveats.<br />One is that the fertility rate of the Haredis have actually been declining recently although obviously that could be more than compensated for by the increasing proportion of Haredi women in the fertile age bracket. <br /><br />Also, if the Haredi are 10 Aslakhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/05813371594062969329noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-19949676.post-78433638413733078942009-06-13T17:26:49.214+00:002009-06-13T17:26:49.214+00:00Following on the last few comments, it would be in...Following on the last few comments, it would be interesting to at least obtain some estimate of how the Haredi birth rates stack up to the remainder of the Jewish population.<br /><br />Wikipedia says the Haredim are about 10 percent of the Jewish population in Israel. If their birth rate is, as you suggest, around 7, then the remainder of the entire population, in order to reach an overall CTyankeehttps://www.blogger.com/profile/04228494820790989487noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-19949676.post-14218801056543575142009-06-13T13:13:43.121+00:002009-06-13T13:13:43.121+00:00Tamara,
The Israeli Bureau of Statistics counts th...Tamara,<br />The Israeli Bureau of Statistics counts the Druze as part of the Arab population - there are now about 120 000 Druze with about 2 500 births annually -they obviously have a somewhat different relationship to the state of Israel than other Arabs.<br /><br />As for the relation between different groups of Jews, I don't really know enough about it to commment - What I can say is Aslakhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/05813371594062969329noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-19949676.post-71311931447863225542009-06-13T12:09:40.654+00:002009-06-13T12:09:40.654+00:00J, while there are certainly high percentages of t...J, while there are certainly high percentages of the population participating in cultural jewish practices, like Seder, Bar Mitzva or even a Yom Kippur fast, most of us still identify as secular as far as political and social (rather than personal, religeos) issues are concerned - like secular schools, civil weddings, keeping the shabbat, etc. <br /><br />My evidence is mostly anecdotal, but Tamarahttps://www.blogger.com/profile/09002115690340326679noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-19949676.post-22013663046288038452009-06-13T10:34:25.467+00:002009-06-13T10:34:25.467+00:00Israel does as you probably know also have other d...<i>Israel does as you probably know also have other demographic concerns related to the number of ultra-Orthodox and religious Jews versus secular ones</i><br /><br />Aslak, I dont think here is anything about Jews that a "goy" cannot understand, in fact, I think they understand us better than we ourselves do. But here you see picture through secular eyes alone, if I may guess, through Jhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/05676167615981895061noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-19949676.post-27696910921760837152009-06-13T07:40:54.565+00:002009-06-13T07:40:54.565+00:00LB,
It's true that the religious ones are the ...LB,<br />It's true that the religious ones are the minority but it seems they are the ones who have both the ideology and the organization to influence events. A post about West Bank demography seems like a good idea, look for it to appear sometime over the weekend.Aslakhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/05813371594062969329noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-19949676.post-67108191803631660012009-06-13T00:29:09.270+00:002009-06-13T00:29:09.270+00:00"Religious zionists do seem to be able to set...<i>"Religious zionists do seem to be able to set the agenda for the West Bank, almost all of the time."</i><br /><br />Aslak, that statement seems to based on misconception that most Jews over the green line are religious, which untrue. They are a significant minority, but nowhere near a majority. I think it would be interesting if you did a post about the demographics of the west bank.LBhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/03246649908259127942noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-19949676.post-36800182961190989642009-06-12T19:28:18.070+00:002009-06-12T19:28:18.070+00:00As to whether the Israeli right is carrying out a ...As to whether the Israeli right is carrying out a precise strategy based on my numbers, you're probably right that they don't - but what my numbers indicate is that they can win the demographic war if they exclude Gaza -and trying to isolate Gaza and foment division between it and the West Bank does seem to have been their strategy.<br /><br /> As for West Bank strategy, it's more Aslakhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/05813371594062969329noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-19949676.post-28839019062908052102009-06-12T19:17:37.125+00:002009-06-12T19:17:37.125+00:00J,
Everything in the article depends on current tr...J,<br />Everything in the article depends on current trends continuing, Palestinian fertility declining and Jewish fertility remaining stable, because that's what I think most most likely. Evidently, that may or may not be true. I'm sceptical toward long-term projection precisely because assumptions like the ones I'm making often turn out wrong. We can say with reasonable certainty Aslakhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/05813371594062969329noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-19949676.post-53043570505724722802009-06-12T16:27:33.008+00:002009-06-12T16:27:33.008+00:00Very good news. May I comment that you exaggerate ...Very good news. May I comment that you exaggerate the capacity of Israeli Right to carry out such a precise strategy as you describe. Aleway! Or am I underestimating them? On the other hand, you are the first demographer without long term predictions. What about 2020? 2050? Would you agree that Palestinian fertility will collapse a la Lebanon, Cyprus, Greece? That the demographic conflict has Jhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/05676167615981895061noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-19949676.post-27197677088956625772009-06-12T13:01:55.432+00:002009-06-12T13:01:55.432+00:00I'm sorry, I said Taba, but I meant Olmert'...I'm sorry, I said Taba, but I meant Olmert's proposal a couple of years agoAslakhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/05813371594062969329noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-19949676.post-4167420905169526982009-06-12T12:51:42.107+00:002009-06-12T12:51:42.107+00:00Well, perhaps I should be more specific. Religious...Well, perhaps I should be more specific. Religious zionists do seem to be able to set the agenda for the West Bank, almost all of the time.<br /><br />There have been a couple of exceptions to this, notably Ariel Sharon's 2005 diseengagement plan when four settlements were abandoned, but it has been generally true. As for my demographic analysis and alleged ignorance of the region, I stand byAslakhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/05813371594062969329noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-19949676.post-82098337408440735262009-06-12T12:34:44.359+00:002009-06-12T12:34:44.359+00:00"religious Zionists always seem able to set t..."religious Zionists always seem able to set the agenda in Israel."<br /><br />Such a ridiculous statement about Israeli politics belie both your own political stance (which is obvious and should have been clearly stated at the outset) and your ignorance of Israeli society and, I think, of the region in general.<br /><br />It makes me wonder how trustworthy you demographic analysis is.joenoreply@blogger.com