tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-19949676.post2040422365320130912..comments2024-03-24T20:13:39.387+00:00Comments on demography.matters.blog: Low Fertility Trap Follow-upUnknownnoreply@blogger.comBlogger9125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-19949676.post-40119267604218676322010-10-14T23:58:16.908+00:002010-10-14T23:58:16.908+00:00Globalization is indeed negative for population in...Globalization is indeed negative for population in wealthy aging countries, because it is so cheap to directly or indirectly import labour from lower-cost countries.<br /><br />We stop making children for the same reason we stopped making all sorts of other commodities: given housing and educational cost differentials, children are much cheaper to import, than to produce domestically.<br /><br /Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-19949676.post-17972198090748226482007-05-21T02:54:00.000+00:002007-05-21T02:54:00.000+00:00An interesting contrast between the historical dem...An interesting contrast between the historical demographics of Europe and China (I know little about India, and so can't comment) lies in that Europe, following the Black Death at least, did not again butt up against its Malthusian limits to population. Peroids of population stagnatuion or decline in European history, such as occurred betwen 1300-1450, or bewteen 1600-1700, lasted centuries evenUnknownhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/08745943490362684194noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-19949676.post-18167417575059707162007-05-21T02:39:00.000+00:002007-05-21T02:39:00.000+00:00Thank you. Coincidence is certainly not cause, an...Thank you. Coincidence is certainly not cause, and the low fertility rate and the previous aggressiveness may both result from some third factor. Also, disillusionment can stem from many causes, not simply defeat in war. The eastern European example is quite apt (we are going back to Romania in a few weeks), as most of them have been victim rather than perpetrator nations, which may also Assistant Village Idiothttps://www.blogger.com/profile/01978011985085795099noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-19949676.post-15024676496255582242007-05-20T20:07:00.000+00:002007-05-20T20:07:00.000+00:00Religiousity seems to play a role. Here's an inte...Religiousity seems to play a role. Here's an interesting article on the subject:<BR/><BR/>http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/articles/A54700-2004Sep1.html<BR/><BR/>In 2004 presidential elections, 29 or the 30 most fertile states voted for Bush, and the 15 lowest fertility states voted Kerry. <BR/><BR/>Perhaps someone could parse the German data in a similar way. <BR/><BR/>As to economic Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-19949676.post-48608086077339245232007-05-20T07:39:00.000+00:002007-05-20T07:39:00.000+00:00Hi again AVI,"Optimism seems to matter."Yep, I cer...Hi again AVI,<BR/><BR/>"Optimism seems to matter."<BR/><BR/>Yep, I certainly would agree with this, especially in the case of those countries which may be caught in the 'trap' (if we can establish that one exists that is).<BR/><BR/>""think Italy, Germany, and Japan..." sorry to be a one-trick pony, but is there any connection between those three nations about the middle of the 20th C,"<BR/><BR/>Edward Hughhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/10384039867580949531noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-19949676.post-85708453666039132912007-05-20T01:22:00.000+00:002007-05-20T01:22:00.000+00:00Optimism seems to matter.Two points: To the OP - "...Optimism seems to matter.<BR/><BR/>Two points: To the OP - "think Italy, Germany, and Japan..." sorry to be a one-trick pony, but is there any connection between those three nations about the middle of the 20th C, and mightn't that have an important psychological effect on the desire to perpetuate oneself? Humiliation can be a disincentive.<BR/><BR/>To hugh in the comments: forgive the perhapsAssistant Village Idiothttps://www.blogger.com/profile/01978011985085795099noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-19949676.post-82369982058723582282007-05-19T18:23:00.000+00:002007-05-19T18:23:00.000+00:00"The presentation of globalization as a purely dep..."The presentation of globalization as a purely depressive factor for fertility is, I think, over-simple."<BR/><BR/>Yep, well I agree.<BR/><BR/>In above replacement fertility societies - and especially the very high fertility societies - globalisation does act as a stimulus to reduce fertility by encouraging the tranfer of behavioural norms, and especially in the areas of gender emancipation and Edward Hughhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/10384039867580949531noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-19949676.post-29198849626503769092007-05-19T11:18:00.000+00:002007-05-19T11:18:00.000+00:00The presentation of globalization as a purely depr...The presentation of globalization as a purely depressive factor for fertility is, I think, over-simple. While trade puts a country's low-skill sector in competition with other countries' low-skill sectors, which as explained here is likely to decrease youth wages, in the absence of trade, the country would not be able to export its way to growth, which is likely to decrease everyone's wages, andUnknownhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/08745943490362684194noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-19949676.post-67447841885795256682007-05-17T15:11:00.000+00:002007-05-17T15:11:00.000+00:00One possible solution that German leaders might co...One possible solution that German leaders might consider for getting women to consider improving their attitudes toward having children would be an informational campaign that demonstrates the consequences to German society of the "no-kid" attitude and appeal to citizens' national pride or patriotism. It would be interesting to see a survey regarding young Germans' attitudes about how important Scotthttps://www.blogger.com/profile/12392288826388903607noreply@blogger.com