tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-19949676.post1835259230805485167..comments2024-03-24T20:13:39.387+00:00Comments on demography.matters.blog: On projections and predictions and their flawsUnknownnoreply@blogger.comBlogger6125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-19949676.post-12556123816619583402010-11-12T17:01:01.525+00:002010-11-12T17:01:01.525+00:00I think in common parlance, the concepts of "...I think in common parlance, the concepts of "projections" and "predictions" have become so mixed up to the point that the words seem interchangeable. They are not.<br /><br />Predictions involve statements along the lines of "I think [xyz] will come to pass in [timeframe]". These are highly speculative and convey a sense of expert opinion. Projections, on the other Michael Grayerhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/02512695249235770799noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-19949676.post-61722738216999900592010-11-12T05:07:18.512+00:002010-11-12T05:07:18.512+00:00Those sorts of open-ended projections are probably...Those sorts of open-ended projections are probably the best sort. Probabilistic ones are best, IMHO; if you're making projections about the future, trying for excessive specificity isn't a good idea. If anything, trying for less might be better.Randy McDonaldhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/04707497864911987241noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-19949676.post-34400020613841277112010-11-07T01:47:39.419+00:002010-11-07T01:47:39.419+00:00Sorry, I found the comment about the 2020 thing an...Sorry, I found the comment about the 2020 thing and it was from the Blogger Edward, not from Randy.<br /><br />It wasn't really a prediction either. Just said that he wouldn't be suprised.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-19949676.post-77834464516906754982010-11-06T23:52:54.613+00:002010-11-06T23:52:54.613+00:00Speaking of Spain and predictions.
Someone on thi...Speaking of Spain and predictions.<br /><br />Someone on this blog predicted that by 2020 Spain would probably have a higher TFR than Morocco. I think it was you Randy. This sounds like an entirely reasonable possibility. I was just wondering if the person still holds to the prediction (I don't remember precisely if it was a full fledged prediction or not).Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-19949676.post-2697094903002318122010-11-06T20:02:04.975+00:002010-11-06T20:02:04.975+00:00Relative decline, sure, but the huge absolute decl...Relative decline, sure, but the huge absolute decline predicted didn't happen. The predicted growth was the reverse of what happened--instead of shrinking by a quarter over that timeframe, Britain's population _grew_ by a quarter. Likewise, we didn't get a France of 28 million by the early 1980s. This unexpected growth had huge consequences, on everything from the relative powers of Randy McDonaldhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/04707497864911987241noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-19949676.post-6979398602824258942010-11-06T10:39:37.830+00:002010-11-06T10:39:37.830+00:00Well, the people giving doom-laden predictions abo...Well, the people giving doom-laden predictions about Western demographics weren't completely wrong when it came to Europe (they were about the US, though). Europe's share of world population is a lot smaller than it was in 1900, despite immigration, and Europe's geopolitical influence has diminished as well, despite increased coordination between European countries (though given thatColin Reidnoreply@blogger.com