tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-19949676.post116733310807976637..comments2024-03-19T11:14:28.872+00:00Comments on demography.matters.blog: Postponing and Accelerating BirthsUnknownnoreply@blogger.comBlogger10125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-19949676.post-84039443090104940192007-01-20T08:05:00.000+00:002007-01-20T08:05:00.000+00:00Note that in traditional Western society, income f...Note that in traditional Western society, income for ordinary laboring people peaked in the 20's and 30's -- precisely during the primary reproductive and household-formation years.<br /><br />Then it tended to drop off after the mid-40's, as the physical capacity to do hard labor declined.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-19949676.post-1167803574173765992007-01-03T05:52:00.000+00:002007-01-03T05:52:00.000+00:00On the postponing birth question: since fertility...On the postponing birth question: since fertility drops off so rapidly after 30, postponing is often much the same thing as "never".<BR/><BR/>So getting people to front-load their childbearing may be important in bringing completed family size closer to _desired_ family size.<BR/><BR/>Usually it's quite a bit lower.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-19949676.post-1167803510148294142007-01-03T05:51:00.000+00:002007-01-03T05:51:00.000+00:00"I think its important to understand that the sort..."I think its important to understand that the sort of people we saw in the news coverage of the new orleans flooding just don't exist here, so we don't have these kind of issues."<BR/><BR/>-- odd, I saw quite similar types burning cars all around Paris not so long ago... 8-). And you can certainly find them in Britain!Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-19949676.post-1167797528034793372007-01-03T04:12:00.000+00:002007-01-03T04:12:00.000+00:00The basic problem seems to be that there's a tensi...The basic problem seems to be that there's a tension between earning patterns and need for spending. Young adults tend to face high cost of living: some are living alone and have to deal with the inefficiencies of singlehood; some are moving away from home for the first time and face large one-off setup costs, especially if they intend to enter the housing market; some are trying to bring up Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-19949676.post-1167684930015904192007-01-01T20:55:00.000+00:002007-01-01T20:55:00.000+00:00"-- well, frankly, why bother? They're already the..."-- well, frankly, why bother? They're already the income group with highest fertility in most places, and they're the ones most likely to impose further costs."<BR/><BR/>I suspect you may be generalising from the US and above replacement fertility societies. I don't think this is at all true in Eastern and southern Europe for example.<BR/><BR/>Really in Spain, apart from the gypsies, and Adminhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/07431230172942198078noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-19949676.post-1167676222121793762007-01-01T18:30:00.000+00:002007-01-01T18:30:00.000+00:00Sterling,"One basic problem we've been having is t...Sterling,<BR/><BR/>"One basic problem we've been having is that modern medicine puts disproportionate resources into keeping very old and/or very sick people alive another 6 to 12 months."<BR/><BR/>Sometimes I think, Sterling, that you have a very harsh way of putting things, or would that be a very direct way, the curious thing is sometimes it irks me, and I'm sure that sometimes the way I say Adminhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/07431230172942198078noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-19949676.post-1167628920740853232007-01-01T05:22:00.000+00:002007-01-01T05:22:00.000+00:00One basic problem we've been having is that modern...One basic problem we've been having is that modern medicine puts disproportionate resources into keeping very old and/or very sick people alive another 6 to 12 months.<BR/><BR/>If you look at the proportion of health spending going to people during the last year of their lives, it's absurd -- and growing.<BR/><BR/>The real reductions in mortality came quite some time ago, with basic sanitation Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-19949676.post-1167628752566347322007-01-01T05:19:00.000+00:002007-01-01T05:19:00.000+00:00"This is important if you want to get child benefi..."This is important if you want to get child benefits through to the people on or near the minimum wage who are effectively not paying income tax in the first place."<BR/><BR/>-- well, frankly, why bother? They're already the income group with highest fertility in most places, and they're the ones most likely to impose further costs.<BR/><BR/>What you really want to do is increase TFR's at the Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-19949676.post-1167580742605271922006-12-31T15:59:00.000+00:002006-12-31T15:59:00.000+00:00"Note that if you're going to subsidize childbeari..."Note that if you're going to subsidize childbearing and rearing, it makes a lot of sense to do it through tax incentives, rather than by actually giving people money."<BR/><BR/>I'm not really sure about this Sterling, but obviously it all depends how the tax system is framed. Negative taxes, however, which are one alternative solution to the poverty trap part of the problem effectively amount toAdminhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/07431230172942198078noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-19949676.post-1167446216071199542006-12-30T02:36:00.000+00:002006-12-30T02:36:00.000+00:00Note that if you're going to subsidize childbearin...Note that if you're going to subsidize childbearing and rearing, it makes a lot of sense to do it through tax incentives, rather than by actually giving people money.<BR/><BR/>It more or less forces economies elsewhere, for starters -- 'starving the beast', as the saying goes.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.com