tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-19949676.post115729628550615662..comments2024-03-24T20:13:39.387+00:00Comments on demography.matters.blog: German demographics ... food for thought!Unknownnoreply@blogger.comBlogger10125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-19949676.post-1157949550960210912006-09-11T04:39:00.000+00:002006-09-11T04:39:00.000+00:00"and the longer they wait the harder it will be."U..."and the longer they wait the harder it will be."<BR/><BR/>Unfortunately Sterling, I have the horrid feeling that Germany is now very much a done deal. I mean Detlef may be defensive, but he is concerned. Out beyond him you find simply loads of people who are not convinced that either this problem is a serious one, or that there is any need to do anything. I mean, this is refelected in the Edward Hughhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/10384039867580949531noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-19949676.post-1157923931720536852006-09-10T21:32:00.000+00:002006-09-10T21:32:00.000+00:00Even a substantial increase in TFR would take a ge...Even a substantial increase in TFR would take a generation to get Germany out of the hole it's in, and the longer they wait the harder it will be.<BR/><BR/>The German government should be getting very, very pronatalist, and doing it _now_. And also encouraging East European immigration.<BR/><BR/>For historical reasons this is probably going to be difficult for them, especially the former.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-19949676.post-1157923824948726132006-09-10T21:30:00.000+00:002006-09-10T21:30:00.000+00:00The US also had a very significant return rate amo...The US also had a very significant return rate among immigrants in the great 1896-1914 surge; up to 25-35% among Italians, for example.<BR/><BR/>This was probably largely due to the fall in the time and money required for a transatlantic passage, which effectively unified the North American and European labor markets in some respects.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-19949676.post-1157664525401892082006-09-07T21:28:00.000+00:002006-09-07T21:28:00.000+00:00Stirling"Is there any evidence of, say, Turkish im...Stirling<BR/><BR/>"Is there any evidence of, say, Turkish immigrants or their children in Germany returning to Turkey? The economy there has been expanding rapidly, and skills would be in demand."<BR/><BR/>Again we don't have the data, but Turkey has zero net migration these days, which means that some must be coming in at the same time as some are still going out.<BR/><BR/>Obviously the idea Adminhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/07431230172942198078noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-19949676.post-1157663480778557422006-09-07T21:11:00.000+00:002006-09-07T21:11:00.000+00:00Detlef,"First, there must be a typo in that FT art...Detlef,<BR/><BR/>"First, there must be a typo in that FT article."<BR/><BR/>Yeah there's obviously something very odd about that figure and that date.<BR/><BR/>"Any idea of how many British or French citizens "emigrated" to other EU countries? Just to get a comparison..."<BR/><BR/>No, we don't have this data at this point, it would be interesting to have it. I have seen articles in the US press Adminhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/07431230172942198078noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-19949676.post-1157650508277806312006-09-07T17:35:00.000+00:002006-09-07T17:35:00.000+00:00First, there must be a typo in that FT article. Th...First, there must be a typo in that FT article. The German population in 1987 was 60+ million, not 80+ million. Reunification hadnĀ“t yet happened back then. Or do they mean 1997?<BR/><BR/>And second, how much of that emigration is to other EU countries? You know, freedom of movement inside the EU?<BR/>Any idea of how many British or French citizens "emigrated" to other EU countries? Just to get aAnonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-19949676.post-1157636407713160712006-09-07T13:40:00.000+00:002006-09-07T13:40:00.000+00:00Such movement is indeed heared off these days. But...Such movement is indeed heared off these days. But I can't offer numbers.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-19949676.post-1157603812504789322006-09-07T04:36:00.000+00:002006-09-07T04:36:00.000+00:00Most countries with lots of immigrants have a subs...Most countries with lots of immigrants have a substantial return outflow.<BR/><BR/>Is there any evidence of, say, Turkish immigrants or their children in Germany returning to Turkey? The economy there has been expanding rapidly, and skills would be in demand.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-19949676.post-1157382918445848972006-09-04T15:15:00.000+00:002006-09-04T15:15:00.000+00:00"Any indication as to whether these out-migrants r..."Any indication as to whether these out-migrants represent a cross-section of German society, or only part of it"<BR/><BR/>This is very hard to say Robert, all any of us have here I think is anecdotal evidence. But the worrying thing from Germany's point of view is the educational profile of these people. They are qualified, and they are 'uprooting'.<BR/><BR/>The other part of the picture is Adminhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/07431230172942198078noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-19949676.post-1157379276599875632006-09-04T14:14:00.000+00:002006-09-04T14:14:00.000+00:00Any indication as to whether these out-migrants re...Any indication as to whether these out-migrants represent a cross-section of German society, or only part of it (in which case, after they have left, they will stop leaving). I have heard anecdotally that many former East Germans, having moved west, have decided to keep moving.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.com