tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-19949676.post114503544519107172..comments2024-03-24T20:13:39.387+00:00Comments on demography.matters.blog: The ageing of China and a methodological approach to countries' vulnerability to ageingUnknownnoreply@blogger.comBlogger5125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-19949676.post-1146725421053286652006-05-04T06:50:00.000+00:002006-05-04T06:50:00.000+00:00"and you've got an extremely sticky situation".I a..."and you've got an extremely sticky situation".<BR/><BR/>I agree with this, and the bulk of what you say here. I would simply make two points.<BR/><BR/>1/ China is exports driven. I don't think this is going to change very much. There will of course be an increase in internal consumption, but it won't be sufficient to change the basic picture. People who are hoping otherwise are being utopian. Edward Hughhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/10384039867580949531noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-19949676.post-1146708011951520022006-05-04T02:00:00.000+00:002006-05-04T02:00:00.000+00:00Note that _urban_ Chinese birthrates are not simpl...Note that _urban_ Chinese birthrates are not simply sub-replacement, but among the very lowest in the world -- around 1.<BR/><BR/>This puts them in the same category as Spain or South Korea, among the very-lowest-low.<BR/><BR/>And China is now 40% urbanized and will have a majority of urban residents quite soon, within the decade. In fact, it's only the (slightly) higher fertility of the Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-19949676.post-1146383284272689992006-04-30T07:48:00.000+00:002006-04-30T07:48:00.000+00:00When China's big 'bulge' hits retirement age, Chin...When China's big 'bulge' hits retirement age, China will still be much poorer than the European countries are now.<BR/><BR/>And its economy will still be much more dependent on primary and secondary sectors, which require physical strength and endurance beyond what older people can manage.<BR/><BR/>There will be a lot of old peasants still in their villages.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-19949676.post-1145335221812100182006-04-18T04:40:00.000+00:002006-04-18T04:40:00.000+00:00"China has one of the longest life expectancy amon..."China has one of the longest life expectancy among low-income countries. This was seen as a major achievement compared to Africa, but now it starts to become a problem. By 2040, the UN projects that the share of elderly in Chinese population will rise to 28%."<BR/><BR/>Apart from the point I have made on Randy's post about any potential economic problems in China being everyone's problems given Adminhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/07431230172942198078noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-19949676.post-1145217914417724682006-04-16T20:05:00.000+00:002006-04-16T20:05:00.000+00:00Funded pensions won't help. It's simply rearrangi...Funded pensions won't help. It's simply rearranging deck chairs on the Titanic.<BR/><BR/>The working population still has to support those who aren't working; how the surplus is extracted doesn't matter as much as the amount.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.com